西部地区资源依赖型城市地方政府债务风险评价与防范

Risk Evaluation of Local Government Debt in Energy Enriched Cities in Backward Areas

新常态经济形势下,我国经济宏观调控重心由“稳增长”向“防风险”转变,防范地方政府债务风险是牢牢守住不发生区域性和系统性风险的必然要求与重中之重。改革开放后,依托国内外市场的东部地区和依赖资源的西部地区经济水平差距不断拉大,其地方政府债务的形成机理与化解思路具有显著区别,而目前学界针对西部地区资源依赖型城市的地方政府债务的相关研究较少。本文以甘肃资源型城市庆阳市为例,梳理了该市政府债务的形成机理,并且利用扩展的KMV模型分析了其地方政府债务违约风险,提出以庆阳市为代表的西部地区资源型城市应通过部署短期应急措施、建立长远的财政增收与债务管理计划以及调整与优化产业结构,以确保地区经济持续发展和政府债务的安全。

Under the new normal economic situation,the focus of China's macroeconomic regulation has shifted from“steady growth”to“risk prevention”.The 19th National Congress report listed prevention and resolution of major risks as the first of the three major battles,reflecting the bottom line thinking and fear of“putting prevention and control risks in a more prominent position.”To guard against local government debt risk is an inevitable requirement and a top priority to keep a firm hold on to regional and systemic risks.After the reform and opening up,the gap between the eastern region,which relies on domestic and foreign markets,and the western region,which depends on resources,has been widening,and the mechanism for the formation of local government debt has been significantly different from the way of resolving it.At present,there are few researches on the local government debt of resource-dependent cities in western China.Taking qingyang city,a resource city in Gansu province as an example,this paper combed out the formation mechanism of government debt in the city,and measured the default probability of local government debt by using the extended KMV model.The study found that the factors such as the inequality of fiscal power and business power,the unreasonable taxation system,and the single industrial structure make its fiscal revenue weak,and the fiscal pressure increases,which in turn leads to the increase of government debt risk,resulting in a great probability of government debt default.To this end,the western region resource city represented by Qingyang City[Shenmu in Shaanxi,Shizuishan in Ningxia,Karamay in Xinjiang,Haixi in Qinghai,and Yumen in Gansu.]Short-term emergency measures should be deployed and long-term fiscal revenue and debt management plans should be established,and the industrial structure should be adjusted and optimized to ensure the sustainable development of the regional economy and the security of government debt.