行星运动对台风生成频数与ENSO相互关系变化的影响

Influence of Planetary Motion on the Relationship between Typhoon Generation Frequency and ENSO

利用台风最佳路径数据集、1950—2016年厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件、赤道太平洋海温关键区海温和行星冲日等资料,运用统计方法研究了西北太平洋台风频数和ENSO的相互关系变化与行星运动的关系。结果发现:西北太平洋台风频数与ENSO之间相互关系的变化无论长周期还是短周期都与行星位置变化密切相关。从年代际变化来看,两者相互关系在1990年代初期(1993年前后)发生明显改变,在1993年之前,两者为显著的负相关关系,1950—1992年相关系数高达-0.439,检验通过了99%的置信水平,而且,台风频数的极多(少)年大多数与拉尼娜(厄尔尼诺)现象相对应,但在1993年之后两者变为明显的正相关关系。这一改变恰好发生在1993年7月12日出现太阳、地球、天王星、海王星四星一线的特殊星象,而在此前后的数年间,天王星、海王星两大行星同时都保持在6—7月冲日,对地球形成持续作用的引潮力迭加。从年际变化来看,两者的相关系数变化与火星、木星和土星的位置也存在明显的联系:相关系数的谷值与三大行星在夏至前后冲日相对应,其中与火星在夏至附近冲日(此时视赤纬具有负极值)对应的谷值最明显。通过谐波分析发现,相关系数变化的显著周期恰好与三大行星运动周期一致。

The relationship between Typhoon generation frequency in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and Sea Surface Temperature(SST)of eastern equatorial Pacific with planetary motion is discussed by using statistical methods.The results show that there is an obvious relationship between Typhoon frequency in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and SST of eastern equatorial Pacific in long or short cycle.Before the early 1990s(around 1993),it showed significant negative correlation,and high(low)typhoon generation frequency mostly corresponded with La Ni a(El Ni o)phenomenon.However,the correlation coefficient became significant positive after time when the Sun,Earth,Uranus and Neptune were in a line on July 12,1993.Then,in the following several years,Uranus and Neptune remained opposition during the same period between June and July,with the greatest tidal-generating force to the Earth.Meanwhile,it is also found that the correlation coefficient as mentioned above is obviously related to the position among Mars,Jupiter and Saturn in inter-annual variation,the valley of correlation coefficient is related to the position among the three planets,and the significant variation of the correlation coefficient coincides with the period of motion of the three planets by using harmonic analysis.