城市天然气供应风险评价与预警研究

Research on Risk Assessment and Early Warning of Urban Natural Gas Supply

大力推广和运用低碳的天然气资源是城市环境治理的重要举措,而天然气消费的快速增长带来了较大的供应风险。目前,对天然气供应风险评价和预警主要集中于国家层面,其研究不能应用于城市燃气各相关方的风险预警。为此,构建了城市天然气供应风险评价指标体系,运用马尔科夫模型建立了城市天然气供应风险预警机制,划分了四级预警等级,并分别制定了相应的风险管控措施。结果表明:城市天然气供应方面存在较大的气源不足风险、输送能力不足风险和需求旺盛风险;城市天然气供应风险具有时效性和随机性的特点,可以用马尔科夫模型对风险因素进行预测和预警;根据四级预警等级的设定,结合蛛网图等可视化工具,可以实现对风险因素发展趋势的动态监测和预防处理。结论认为,城市天然气供应风险评价体系和风险预警机制能够反映城市天然气供应风险的特点,并为城市天然气供应相关方提供有效的警情预测和预报。

Promoting and utilizing the low-carbon natural gas resources is an important measure of urban environmental governance. However,the rapid growth of urban natural gas consumption has brought about great risks. At present,the research on risk assessment and early warning of natural gas supply mainly focuses on the national level,and cannot be used in the risk management of stakeholders in urban gas supply. Therefore,the evaluation indicators and evaluation system of natural gas supply risk are constructed. The Markov Model is used to establish an early-warning mechanism of urban natural gas supply risk,and the four-level warning system is classified. The corresponding risk control measures are also developed for each indicator in different warning level. The results show that great risks exist in the urban natural gas supply, including insufficient gas sources, lower transportation capacity and demand exuberance;the risks of natural gas supply in cities have the characteristics of timeliness and randomness,so the Markov Model can be used to predict and warn the risk factors;according to four warning levels,and combined with visual tools such as spider chart,the dynamic observations of the development trend of risk factors and prevention of risk events can be realized. Conclusions are that: the risk assessment and risk early warning system can reflect the characteristics of natural gas supply risk in cities and can provide effective forecasting and warning mechanism for all stakeholders of urban natural gas supply.