基于渐进式延迟退休的基本养老保险基金收支测算——以2020—2050年福建省的预测为例

Estimation of the Revenue and Expenditure of Basic Pension Insurance Fund Based on Progressive Delayed Retirement——Taking Fujian in 2020-2050 for Example

以福建省基本养老保险基金作为研究对象,该基金长期以来收支平衡,但面临着人口老龄化带来的支付风险。构建人口预测模型和基金的收支模型,分别根据现有退休政策和渐进式延迟退休的假设方案,测算2020-2050年福建基本养老保险基金收支状况。在现有退休政策下,2020年基金将收不抵支,2035年开始缺口快速拉大。在渐进式延迟退休的假设方案下,2020-2040年养老保险基金同样收不抵支,但缺口较小,2040年基金收支恢复平衡,开始逐年有盈余。渐进式延迟退休能够扭转福建省基本养老保险基金未来收支失衡的趋势,同时政府应该重视延迟退休给不同群体带来的影响,推出相应的配套政策消除部分不利影响。

Taking the basic pension insurance fund of Fujian Province as the research object, the fund has been in balance for a long time, but it is facing the risk of payment brought about by the aging population. By constructing a population prediction model and a revenue and expenditure model of the fund, and based on the existing retirement policy and the hypothesis of progressive delayed retirement, this paper estimates the revenue and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund of Fujian in 2020-2050. Under the current retirement policy, in 2020, the expenditure will exceed its revenue, and the gap will widen rapidly in 2035. Under the hypothesis of progressive delayed retirement, the expenditure will still exceed its revenue in 2020-2040, but the gap is small. In 2040, the revenue and expenditure will return to balance and begin to have surplus year by year. Progressive delayed retirement can reverse the trend of the imbalance of the basic pension insurance fund in the future. At the same time, we should attach importance to the impact of delayed retirement on different groups and introduce corresponding supporting policies to eliminate some adverse effects.