基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的河北省体育产业规模发展预测

Forecast of the Scale Development of Sports Industry in Hebei Province Based on Grey GM(1,1)Model

以2015-2018年河北省体育产业总规模为原始数据,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)初始模型和残差序列分析模型,利用误差、相对误差百分比、平均相对误差Qmin、小误差概率P、后验差比值C来评价预测模型精度,得出河北省体育产业未来五年总规模预测结果。研究认为,灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的原始序列和残差序列预测模型精度等级均为“很好”,第3次残差序列分析模型的灰色预测精度最高,未来五年体育产业规模表现为持续增长态势,有着较大的市场空间。

With the total size of the sports industry in Hebei Province in 2015-2018 as the original data the grey prediction GM(1,1)initial model and residual sequence analysis model are established,and the error,relative error percentage and average relative are utilized.The error Qmin,the small error probability P,and the posterior difference ratio C are used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model,and the results of the total scale of the sports industry in Hebei Province in the next five years are obtained.The research indicates that the accuracy of the original sequence and residual sequence prediction model of the gray prediction GM(1,1)model is“very good”;the third residual sequence analysis model has the highest gray prediction accuracy;the scale of the sports industry in the next five years.It shows a continuous growth trend and has a large market space.