基于结构分解模型的中国电力消费驱动因素研究

The Influencing Factors of China’s Electricity Consumption Based on Structural Decomposition Analysis

自中国经济步入院系新常态以来,电力消费年均增速放缓,与经济增速表现背离。在电力能源投入产出分析的基础上,对中国电力消费驱动因素进行结构分解分析,比较不同经济阶段各因素的作用机制,解析电力消费的增长模式,探究其年均增速放缓的原因。结果表明:人均最终需求水平一直是电力消费增长最大的增量因素,但其贡献比例呈递减趋势;除2010-2012年阶段外,电力直接能耗系数一直是电力消费增长最大的减量因素,而最终需求结构以较小的拉动率促进电力消费增长;电力消费的增长动力来源由净出口驱动(2005-2007年)为主转变投资驱动(2007-2010年)为主,再向消费驱动(2010-2015年)为主过渡。

Since the economic development has stepped into a new normal phase in China,the average annual growth rate of its electricity consumption has slowed down,which shows the deviation from the rate of economic growth.Based on the input-output analysis for electrical energy,structural decomposition analysis is carried out to evaluate the driving factors for the changes of use in relation to electricity consumption.By comparing the effects of various factors among different economic stages and analyzing the growth patterns of electricity consumption,we aim to investigate the reasons for the slowing annual growth rate of electricity consumption.Results show that:per capita final demand level has always been the major driving factor of the growth in electricity consumption,but its proportion of contribution has a decreasing tendency.Except for the period of 2010-2012,direct electricity consumption coefficients have always the primary factor which causes the decrease of electricity consumption,but the final demand structure promotes the growth of electricity consumption with a relatively smaller pulling rate.The engine of electricity consumption growth shifted from export-driven in 2005-2007 to investment-driven in 2007-2010 and consumption-driven in 2010-2015.