利率对私人储蓄的影响——基于负利率环境的研究

The Impact of Interest Rate on Private Saving: An Empirical Investigation of Negative Interest Rate Policy

本文以2000-2016年23个主要发达国家为样本,采用面板模型研究了不同政策利率区间下实际存款利率对私人储蓄的影响。通过实证分析,发现私人储蓄与实际存款利率之间具有非线性关系。第一,当政策利率较高时(大于1%),实际存款利率对储蓄的影响以替代效应(正向)为主;第二,当政策利率降到05%~1%时,收入效应占据主导地位(负向),货币政策有效性降低;第三,当政策利率降到05%以下时,替代效应重新占据主导地位(正向),货币政策恢复有效性;第四,当政策利率真正进入负利率时代后,利率对储蓄的影响仍以替代效应为主(正向),货币政策有效性进一步加强。本文丰富了负利率政策有效性的相关研究,为判断央行利率变动如何影响经济活动提供了帮助。

This paper takes the main developed countries from 2000 to 2016 as the samples,and uses the panel model to study the impact of real deposit interest rate on private savings under different policy rate inter vals According to the empirical analysis result,there is a nonlinear relationship between private savings and real deposit interest rate Firstly,when the policy rate is higher(>1%),the substitution effect(positive)dominatestheincomeeffect Secondly,whenthepolicyinterestratefellinto05%~1%,theincomeeffect plays the leading role(negative)and the effectiveness of monetary policy is lower Thirdly,when the policy interest rate fell below 05%,the substitution effect regains dominance(positive)and the monetary policy re stores the effectiveness Fourthly,when the policy interest rate enters the era of negative,the effect of interest rate on savings is still dominated by substitution effect(positive)and the effectiveness of monetary policy is further strengthened This paper enriches the relevant research on the effectiveness of negative interest rate policy and help to understand how central bank affects economic activities through interest rate.