装配式建筑推进多主体协同演化仿真分析

Co-evolutionary Simulation Analysis of Multiple Stakeholders in the Development of Prefabricated Buildings

文章基于装配式建筑发展现状构建了政府、开发商以及消费者参与的装配式建筑推进演化博弈模型,通过仿真分析研究在装配式建筑推进过程中三方策略选择及变化趋势,确定系统演化至理想稳定状态的条件。研究表明:三方参与的系统演化中,单个博弈主体行为的演化及趋势均与其他两个博弈主体的策略选择密切相关;政府作为激励引导的主导力量,在降低自身激励政策性成本的同时要加大对开发传统建筑的开发商的罚款力度;消费者的购买效益对于系统的演化稳定有较大影响,要通过宣传、奖励促使消费者积极参与到装配式建筑的购买中来;开发商在接受政府给与奖励的同时,要积极调整自身策略,在追求利益的同时考虑社会效益,最终达到三方共赢,推动装配式建筑规模化发展。

Based on the status quo of prefabricated building development, the evolutionary game model of prefabricated building promotion with the participation of government, developers and consumers is constructed. The three party strategy selection and change trend in the process of assembly building promotion is studied through the simulation analysis, and the conditions for the system to evolve to an ideal stable state are determined. The research shows that in the evolution of tripartite participation system, the evolution and trend of the behavior of the individual game player are closely related to the strategic choices of the other two game players. As the leading force of incentive guidance, the government should increase the penalty for developers of traditional buildings while reducing its own incentive costs. The purchase benefit of consumers has great influence on the evolution and stability of the system. Consumers should be encouraged to actively participate in the purchase of prefabricated buildings through publicity and reward. While accepting the government’s rewards, developers must actively adjust their strategies, consider social benefits while pursuing benefits, and ultimately achieve a win-win situation for all three parties and promote assembly, so as to promote the large-scale development of prefabricated buildings.