基于Shapley值法的地铁施工PPP项目风险分担

Research on Risk Sharing of Subway Construction PPP Project Based on Shapley Value Method

积极的财政政策,使得地铁工程PPP项目建设模式再次成为大家关注的焦点,其解决融资困难,弥补资金链断层的效果显而易见,但其风险分担、利益分配、权责归属问题仍是制约其发展的主要因素。本文分别从政府、承建方、银行机构三个方面分析制约地铁PPP项目实施的风险及形成原因,通过建立多方动态博弈分担模型,在风险收益理论基础上,利用Shapley值法优选出多主体风险分担结构组合,理清了风险、利益、权责三大问题与参与主体之间的关系。同时以青岛市地铁工程PPP项目为例进行实例剖析,科学划分了风险问题单元,提出协调不同主体合理化承担风险的应对方案和建议,解决了目前地铁施工PPP项目实施困难的相关问题,对地铁建设具有一定实践价值及借鉴意义。

The active fiscal policy makes the PPP project construction mode of subway project become the focus of attention again. It can solve the financing difficulty and make up the fault of capital chain. However, the problems of risk sharing, benefit distribution and ownership of rights and responsibilities are still the main factors restricting its development. In this paper, the risks and causes that restrict the implementation of subway PPP project are analyzed from three aspects: government, construction contractor and bank organization. By establishing a multi-party dynamic game sharing model, based on the risk-return theory, Shapley value method is used to optimize the structure combination of multi-agent risk sharing, the relationship between risk, interest, power and responsibility and participants is clarified. Taking the PPP project of Qingdao subway project as an example, the risk problem unit is divided scientifically, the plans and suggestions to coordinate different subjects to undertake risks rationally are proposed, problems related to the difficulties in the implementation of the current subway construction PPP project are solved. The research results have certain practical value and reference significance for subway construction.