基于多层LMDI分解法的云南电力消费增长趋势研究

Research on the Growth Trend of Electricity Consumption in Yunnan Province Based on Multi-Level LMDI Decomposition Method

在传统单层对数平均迪氏指数法(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)的基础上,为解决单层模型在特定政策、行业方面解释性不足的局限性,提出利用多层LMDI分解模型,将云南省2008-2016年全社会用电量增长进一步分解为人口效应、规模效应、结构效应、部门效应和强度效应并与传统的单层分解法进行对比,分析得到以下结论:规模效应和部门效应对云南省电力消费的增长呈正向作用,结构效应和强度效应对云南省的电力消费的增长呈抑制作用,人口效应的影响较小,可为后续区域电力行业发展建设提供参考。

Based on the traditional Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI),the multi-level LMDI decomposition model is proposed in this paper to solve the limitations of the single-layer model in terms of specific policy and industry.Electricity consumption growth of Yunnan Province in 2008-2016 is further decomposed into population effect,activity effect,structural e ect,department e ect and intensity e ect and compared with the traditional single-level decomposition method.After analysis in detail,some conclusions could be listed as follows:Activity e ect and department e ect have positive e ects on the growth of power consumption in Yunnan Province,but structural e ect and intensity e ect have inhibitory e ects on it.,and the impact of the population e ect is quite small,which can provide reference for the development and construction of regional power industry.