美国对外政策中的情报因素分析

Analysis of Intelligence Factors in American Foreign Policy

[目的/意义]情报是外交决策中的关键要素,已有研究大多倾向于展现情报搜集和情报分析对美国对外政策的重要意义。然而,美国对外政策的实践却表明最终的决策可能并非由情报决定。[方法/过程]运用政治学、情报学和心理学的相关理论,从美国情报体制、情报机构和决策者的自主性,以及情报工作政治化的三个维度,讨论和分析了情报对美国外交政策的影响。[结果/结论]研究表明,由于情报缺位、情报忽视和情报评估错误等现象,情报在美国对外政策中的作用是不确定和有限的。

[Purpose/Significance]Intelligence is a key element in diplomatic decision-making.Most of the existing studies also tend to show the importance of intelligence gathering and intelligence analysis to American foreign policy.However,the practice of American foreign policy shows that the final decision may not be made by intelligence.[Method/Process]Based on the theories of political science,information science and psychology,this paper discusses and analyses the influence of intelligence on American foreign policy from three dimensions:the intelligence system of the United States,the autonomy of intelligence agencies and decision makers,and the politicization of intelligence work.[Result/Conclusion]The research suggests that due to the lack of intelligence,intelligence neglect and intelligence evaluation errors,the role of intelligence in American foreign policy is uncertain and limited.