国内外高速轨道技术生命周期特征的比较与启示——基于专利视角

Comparison and Enlightenment of Life Cycle Characteristics of High-Speed Rail Technology at Home and Abroad: The Patent Perspective

[目的/意义]中国经济的高质量发展需要原创性成果的突破,特别是需要颠覆性技术的推动和支撑,因此探寻颠覆性技术的发展路径是一大重要研究趋势。基于技术生命周期视角,对比国内外技术发展过程所表现出的生命周期特征,从而为颠覆性技术的发展提供参考。[方法/过程]以中国及国外的高速铁路轨道技术相关专利为样本,针对专利申请增长过程构建Logistic模型进行拟合,基于实证分析结果探讨国内外高铁轨道技术生命周期特征的具体表现。[结果/结论]国外专利申请增长过程表现为多重S型曲线,相比之下中国仍处于单一S型曲线的第二成长期,反映出当前中国高铁轨道技术急需实现自我颠覆而进入新的生命周期阶段。

[Purpose/Significance]The high-quality economic development of China requires breakthroughs in original achievements,and the promotion and support of the disruptive technologies are especially crucial to the development.Therefore,exploring the development path of a disruptive technology is an important research trend.From the perspective of technology life cycle,this paper compares the life cycle characteristics of technology development process at home and abroad,so as to provide reference for the development of disruptive technology.[Method/Process]The paper obtained a sample which includes Chinese and foreign patents related to high-speed rail technology,constructed a Logistic model to fit the growth process of patent application,and discussed the life cycle characteristics of domestic and foreign high-speed rail technology based on the empirical analysis results.[Result/Conclusion]The growth process of foreign patent applications shows multiple S-shaped curves,while the situation in China is different:still in the second growth period,showing a single S-shaped curve,which reflects that there is an urgent need for self-subversion in China's high-speed rail technology so as to start its new life-cycle.