基于生态信息法的原木贸易可持续性研究

Sustainability of the Log Trade Based on Ecological Information Approach

近年来,森林资源丰富的国家纷纷出台限制或者禁止原木出口的政策,这对研究原木贸易的可持续性非常重要。首次采用生态信息法定量分析原木贸易的可持续性。先详细介绍生态信息理论,以自然资源型的商品木质林产品中的原木作为研究对象,实证分析20032017年间,全球原木贸易进出口额前20个国家原木对外贸易的可持续性。研究结果表明,原木贸易的系统总吞吐量整体呈现波动上升趋势,代表着原木贸易处于增长态势;而表示原木贸易可持续性的α指标逐年下降。从全球经济因素和各国贸易政策因素出发,论述原木贸易可持续性下降的原因,并给出中国应对原木贸易问题应该加强人工林建设、进口来源国多样化等建议。

In recent years,countries with rich forest resources have introduced policies to restrict or ban the export of logs,so it is particularly necessary to study the sustainability of log trade.This paper uses ecological information-based approach to quantitatively analyze the sustainability of log trade for the first time.Firstly,we introduce the ecological information-based approach in detail,take the natural resource-based commodity,logs in woody forest products as the research object,and empirically analyze the sustainability of the foreign trade of logs in the 20 countries that led the import and export of global log trade from 2003 to 2017.The results show that the total system throughput(TST)of log trade fluctuates but rises on the whole,indicating that the log trade is growing in general.The alpha indicator of the sustainability of trade in logs has been declining year by year.This paper discusses the reasons for the sustainable decline of log trade from global economic factors and trade policy factors in various countries,and gives some suggestions for China to strengthen plantation construction and diversify import sources in response to the current situation of log trade.