基于P-E-R三要素的深圳市人口承载力研究

Research on the Population Carrying Capacity of Shenzhen Based on the Three Elements of P-E-R

深圳作为我国成功的经济特区典范既是改革开放的产物,也成为当代中国最大的移民城市,高速经济增长与人口的飞速增长相辅相成。但是有限的城市空间、有限的自然资源等因素又限制了深圳的经济和社会发展潜力,从而也使深圳市人口承载力成为影响深圳可持续发展的重要因素。本文结合深圳市基本情况,借鉴P-E-R模型的核心思想,从自然资源和经济发展两个角度、以官方统计年鉴数据为基础,探讨深圳人口承载力规模。研究发现,虽然土地资源和水资源是制约深圳市人口承载力的主要短板,但技术进步和发展政策会突破资源限制,提升人口承载力;而在制约人口发展的经济因素方面,随着国家经济步入新常态,深圳GDP的增长速度也将逐步放缓,深圳人口容量亦将受限,因而要突破经济限制因素,高质量经济发展成为必须。本阶段的研究为后续城市管理及发展政策的制定与研究作铺垫,以期能为实现城市的可持续发展提供参考。

As the most successful special economic zone,Shenzhen is not only the product of reform and opening-up,but also the largest immigrant city in China.Since the reform and opening-up,the rapid economic growth and the rapid growth of population complement each other.However,limited urban space and natural resources have restrained the economic and social development space of Shenzhen.In other words,the population carrying capacity of Shenzhen becomes an important factor affecting its development scale.Borrowing from the core ideas of the P-E-R model,the paper discusses the population carrying capacity of Shenzhen from the perspectives of natural resources and economic development.The data is mainly from the official statistical yearbook.It discovers that land and water resources are the main constraints,but technological progress and development policies can break them.As China’s economy has entered a period of new normal,the growth rate of GDP in Shenzhen is also gradually slowing down,and the population capacity of the city will also be limited.In order to break the economic constraints,social economy should achieve a high-quality development.The research is paving the way for subsequent studies and provide references for the sustainable development of Shenzhen.