美国特朗普政府的叙利亚政策研究

A Study on the Syria Policy of the Trump Administration

特朗普就任美国总统初期,对叙利亚的政策摇摆不定,有些方面还自相矛盾,表现出较强的不稳定性。经过一段时间探索调试后,逐渐形成清晰的政策轮廓。在目标设定上,以打击恐怖组织为首要,将推翻巴沙尔政权作为弹性目标,避免俄罗斯和伊朗以叙利亚为基点,扩大地区影响力,减缓“俄进美退”地缘博弈态势。在实现目标路径上,综合运用空中干预、组建反恐联盟和利用代理人等多元手段,避免深度介入叙利亚战事,企图以小成本获得大回报。总体来看,特朗普政府的叙利亚政策体现出较强的务实性、克制性和灵活性,也有其反复性、摇摆性和矛盾性。鉴于俄罗斯在叙利亚压倒性优势难以逆转,以及特朗普政府在中东地区的战略重点是遏制伊朗和打击恐怖组织,我们可以预见,美国不会放弃叙利亚,但在叙利亚问题上也难以成为主导性角色。

In the early days of Trump’s presidency,his Syria policy has been shaken by uncertainty,self-contradiction,and instability.After a period of trial and exploration,however,it has come into a clear shape.In terms of goal setting,it settles on the fight against terrorist organizations as the first priority,the overthrow of the Bashar regime as a flexible target,preventing Russia and Iran from taking Syria as a base point,expanding regional influence and slowing down the geo-game situation of“US retreat and Russian advance”.In terms of the goalachieving path,it adopts a multiple approach that combines air intervention,formation of antiterrorist alliances and use of proxies,so as to avoid deep military involvement in the Syrian war and to obtain a large return at a small cost.Overall,the Trump administration’s Syria policy shows a strong practicality,restraint and flexibility,as well as inconsistency,incoherence and contradictions.Given that Russia’s overwhelming dominance in Syria is difficult to reverse,the Trump administration’s strategic focus in the Middle East is to contain Iran and fight against terrorist organizations,it can be expected that the United States will not give up Syria,but it will be difficult to become a leading player on the Syrian issue.