物化型技术进步对异质性劳动就业存在偏向吗?——来自关联行业视角的经验证据

Does Embodied Technical Progress have Biased Effect on Heterogeneous Labor Employment: An Empirical Study Based on Industrial Relevance

现阶段物化型技术进步的就业效应已经成为经验文献关注的焦点,本文重点关注对异质性技能劳动就业的偏向影响及关联行业物化型技术对本行业就业的影响。本文利用中国2002~2015年行业投入产出数据,测算38个行业物化型技术水平,考察物化型技术进步对本行业和关联行业高、中、低技能劳动就业的偏向影响效应及影响机制。研究发现:(1)样本期内物化型技术整体表现为抑制就业,但对不同水平技能劳动就业会产生异质性水平影响,表现为抑制低技能劳动就业,促进中、高技能劳动就业,这是替代效应和生产率效应共同作用的结果。(2)关联行业物化型技术进步会对本行业的就业产生非对称垂直影响,下游行业物化型技术进步会显著促进本行业就业,尤其是促进低技能劳动就业,主要源自共谋效应的主导作用。(3)行业间物化型技术水平、技术进步率及其就业效应差异明显,就业抑制效应在农业与制造业最为显著,在采掘和公共事业、服务业、健康和教育业影响较小。

While relevant literature focuses on the employment effect of China's embodied technical progress on self industries,this paper pays particular attention to the biased effect on heterogeneous skill employment and the vertical linkage effect of embodied technical progress on the employment of related industries.Based on China's industrial input-output data from 2002 to 2015,this study estimates the level of embodied technology in 38 types of industries,and investigates the heterogeneous influence and influence mechanism of embodied technical progress on the employment of high,medium and low-skilled labor in the said industry and related types of industries.The research found that(1)during the sample period,the embodied technical progress inhibits the overall employment,but has heterogeneous horizontal impact on different levels of skilled labor employment;while it inhibits the employment of low-skilled labor,it promotes that of medium and high skilled labor,as a result of the joint effects from substitution effect and productivity effect;(2)embodied technical progress of related types of industries will have asymmetric vertical impact on employment,and embodied technical progress of downstream industries will significantly promote the employment of the said industry,especially that of low-skilled labor,mainly resulting from the leading role of collusion effect;and(3)there exist obvious differences between different types of industries in terms of the levels of embodied technology,the rate of technical progress and its employment effect;the employment inhibition effect is the most significant in agriculture and manufacturing industry,but of little influence in mining and public utilities,service industries as well as health and education.