风从何处来?将往何处去?——对银行风险管理的思考

Reflection on Banks’ Risk Management

近年来,银行业的市值一直处于高盈利而低估值的"价值泥潭",其中对资产质量的担忧是其重要的影响因素。不良高企,既有外部经济环境的因素,又有内部经营管理的因素;既有客观因素,又有主观因素。直面这一问题,我们既要看到问题的"表",又要看到问题的"里";既要以历史的眼光去看待,又要立足当下去积极化解。本文尝试从历史角度剖析不良高企背后的本质逻辑和规律,从现实角度反思商业银行风险管理存在的问题,并着眼未来,提出风险体系改革的目标和路径,希望能带给读者一些启发和思考。

In recent years,the market value of the banking industry has been in the "value quagmire" of high profits and low valuation,among which the concern about asset quality is an important influencing factor.This paper analyzes the essential logic and law behind the unhealthy high level from a historical perspective,reflects on the problems existing in the risk management of commercial Banks from a realistic perspective,and proposes the goal and path of the risk system reform.