区域间大米价格的传导路径分析——基于国际与国内大米期现货价格传导数据的分析

Analysis of the transmission path of rice prices between regions——Analysis based on rice international and domestic spot price transmission data

随着粮食市场化、国际化和金融化程度日趋加深,探究国内外大米价格传导中的核心市场,对于构建我国的稻米价格预警体系至关重要。本文基于误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验,得出相较于粮食贸易的进口传导机制,期货市场的信息传导机制对我国大米市场的影响更为显著。从国内大米市场区域间的整合关系及传导路径来看,品种间差异明显,籼米市场的地区间整合程度较粳米市场要高,粳米市场表现为销区价格影响产区价格,籼米市场则正好相反,而湖北和北京分别处于全国籼米和粳米市场的核心区域。未来在制定和完善我国粮食安全政策时,应更加注重核心地区的价格波动情况,根据品种差异来优化大米的生产、储备和贸易结构,进一步提升国内大米产业的国际竞争力。

As the degree of food marketization, internationalization, and financialization deepens, exploring the core markets of rice price transmission at home and abroad is crucial to building a rice price warning system in China.Based on the error correction model and Granger causality test, this paper concludes that the information transmission mechanism of the futures market has a more significant impact on the rice market in China than the import transmission mechanism of grain trade. From the perspective of the integration relationship and transmission path between domestic rice market regions, there are obvious differences between varieties. The degree of regional integration of indica rice market is higher than that of japonica market. And Hubei and Beijing are in the core areas of the national indica and japonica markets, respectively. In formulating and improving China’s food security policy in the future, we should pay more attention to price fluctuations in core regions, optimize rice production, storage, and trade structure based on differences in varieties, and further enhance the international competitiveness of domestic rice industry.