蒙古国矿产资源开发与经济增长关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Mineral Resources Development and Economic Growth in Mongolia

蒙古国是自然资源富集的国家,尤其矿产资源十分丰富,为探究蒙古国矿产资源开发与经济增长之间的关系,本文在分析蒙古国矿产资源开发与经济增长现状的基础上,通过ADF检验、协整检验与模型误差修正,得出采矿采石业与GDP之间的长期和短期均衡关系。结果显示,矿产资源开发年产值与社会总投资对经济增长起到一定促进作用,而劳动力则对经济增长产生抑制作用。长期内,采矿采石业与GDP之间存在正向均衡关系;短期内,GDP与当年采矿采石业年产值之间负相关,与GDP滞后一阶和采矿采石业年产值滞后一阶正相关。最后,基于结果分析提出了相关的政策建议。

Mongolia is rich in natural resources,especially in mineral resources.In this paper,the relationship between mineral resources development and economic growth in Mongolia is to be explored.Based on the analysis of the current situation of Mongolia's mineral resources development and economic growth,the long-run and short-run equilibrium relationship between mining and quarrying industries and GDP is obtained through the ADF test,cointegration test and the error correction model The results show that the annual output value of mineral resources development and the total social investment play a certain role in promoting economic growth,while the labor force has a restraining effect on economic growth.In the long run,there is a positive equilibrium relationship between mining and quarrying and GDP.In the short term,there is a negative correlation between GDP and the annual output value of mining and quarrying industries in the current year,and a positive correlation between first-order-lag GDP and the first-order-lag annual output value of mining and quarrying industries.Finally,based on the analysis of the results,relevant policies and suggestions are put forward.