海平面变化对江苏沿海的影响分析

Analysis of the Influence of Sea Level Change on Jiangsu Coastal Area

因全球气候变暖引起的海平面变化已成为重大环境问题,海平面变化对全球经济发展及人类生存具有重大影响.未来30年,江苏沿海海平面将上升68~166 mm.在调查评估基础上,分析海平面变化在海岸侵蚀、行洪、风暴潮灾害和海堤工程等方面的影响,并根据江苏沿海海平面变化特点,提出相应的策略与建议.结果表明:海平面每上升3.3 mm,兴庄河口和绣针河口间的岸线后退0.9 m,扁担港和振东闸之间的海岸线后退0.88 m;海平面上升150 mm,赣榆区龙王河口海堤高程需要加高190 mm;海平面上升将使江苏沿海风暴潮出现的频率和强度明显增加;海平面抬高Δh=0.3 m时,三洋港枢纽泄洪排水量减少5%.

The sea level change caused by global warming has become a major environmental problem,which has a great impact on the global economic development and human survival.In the next 30 years,sea levels along the coast of jiangsu will rise by 68—166 mm.Based on the investigation and evaluation,this paper analyzes the influence of sea level change on coastal erosion,flood passage,storm surge disaster and seawall engineering,and puts forward corresponding strategies and suggestions according to the characteristics of sea level change in Jiangsu coastal area.The results show that for every 3.3 mm rise in sea level,the shoreline between Xingzhuang estuary and Xiuzhen estuary recedes by 0.9 m,and the shoreline between Biandan port and Zhendong dam recedes by 0.88 m.The sea level rises by 150 mm,and the sea wall elevation of Longwang estuary in Ganyu district needs to be increased by 190 mm.Sea level rise will increase the frequency and intensity of storm surge along the coast of Jiangsu.When sea level risesΔh=0.3 m,the discharge capacity of Sanyang port hub will be reduced by 5%.