摘要
对2018年全国地质灾害重点区域的气象预警效果开展定量检验研究。分析地质灾害时空特征,得出灾害空间分布西多东少,西南地区最严重,西北次之,多数灾害发生在6~8月;提出一种考虑准确率与虚报率的地质灾害气象预警综合评估方法,并以2018年6~8月我国地质灾害重点区域气象预警为例验证。结果表明,重点区域基于综合评估方法的地质灾害气象预警效果排名由高到低是贵州、湖北、四川、甘肃、云南;方法根据不同等级气象预警的灾害发生概率确定变量权重系数,检验指标唯一,结果简单直观,区分度高。
The effectiveness of meteorological early warning to major region affected by geological hazards(geo-hazards)of China in 2018 was evaluated quantitatively in this study.Analysis to characteristics of temporal-spatial distribution to geo-hazards showed that hazards occurred more at west than that of east,the quantity of geo-hazards were at maximum in south-west and the second were north-west,besides,most of the geo-hazards were occurred between June to Aug.A comprehensive evaluation method for meteorological early warming to geo-hazards were presented and verified by meteorological early warning to major region in China from June to Aug,2018.Result showed that effectiveness of meteorological early warning to geo-hazards in major region were ranked from high to low as Guizhou,Hubei,Sichuan,Gansu and Yunnan by comprehensive evaluation method.Weighting coefficients used in the evaluation method were decided by probability corresponding to different warning levels.The evaluation index was unique,simple,intuitively and distinctively.
作者
杨寅
林建
包红军
YANG Yin;LIN Jian;BAO Hongjun(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;CMA-HHU Joint Laboratory for Hydrometeorological Studies,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2019年第6期135-140,共6页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507205,2018YFC1508102)
国家自然科学基金项目(41775111)
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-142)
关键词
地质灾害
气象预警
时空特征分析
综合评估方法
重点区域
geo-hazards
meteorological early warning
spatial-temporal feature analysis
comprehensive evaluation method
major region
