京津冀县域尺度碳排放时空演变特征——基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics of County Scale Carbon Emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region——A Study based on DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Data

以全球DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据为基础,通过影像重投影、相互校正、年内校正、时间序列校正后,得到京津冀地区校正后DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据;利用京津冀能源消费统计数据和碳排放因子数据,计算得出京津冀地区分省市碳排放量。在此基础上,通过数据拟合构建京津冀县域尺度碳排放估算模型,估算模型拟合优度为0.9752,估算模型有效。利用构建的估算模型对京津冀县域尺度碳排放量进行估算,并采用探索性空间数据分析方法对京津冀县域尺度碳排放时空演变特征进行分析。结果表明:2000—2013年京津冀县域尺度碳排放呈现快速增长特征,且存在显著的区域差异,高碳县域表现为“Y形”分布特征。县域尺度碳排放具有显著空间正相关性,碳排放空间相关性呈不断减弱的趋势,且呈现空间高值集聚效应和空间低值集聚效应。热点与次热点区域集中在北京市、天津市以及与北京市、天津市邻近的河北省区域;冷点与次冷点区域包括承德西北部地区和河北省中南部地区。

Based on global DMSP/OLS nighttime light data,and after image reprojection,mutual correction,annual correction and time series correction,the corrected DMSP/OLS nighttime light data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were obtained.Based on energy consumption statistics and carbon emissions factor in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the carbon emissions of different provinces and cities were calculated.On this basis,the county scale carbon emissions estimation model was constructed,the goodness of fit of the estimated model was 0.9752,so the model was valid.The county scale carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were estimated by the established estimation model.Then the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions were analyzed based on the method of exploratory spatial data analysis.The results showed that:From 2000 to 2013,county scale carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were featured by rapid growth,and there were significant regional disparities,the counties with high carbon emissions showed a“Y”distribution characteristic.There was a significant positive spatial correlation in county scale carbon emissions;the spatial correlation of carbon emissions showed a decreasing trend,and there was a spatial high-value agglomeration effect and a spatial low-value agglomeration effect.The hot and sub-hot areas were concentrated in Beijing,Tianjin and the areas of Hebei province which are adjacent to Beijing and Tianjin.The cold and sub-cold areas included the northwest of Chengde and central-southern areas of Hebei province.