中美贸易摩擦对区域经济影响的实证研究

Empirical study on the influence of Sino-US trade friction on regional economy

中美贸易摩擦的不断升温,对积极扩大开放的区域经济产生深远影响,通过整理美国宣布的“500+2000”亿美元关税所涉及的具体产业,探究了自2018年中美贸易摩擦以来,对以成都为中心的区域整体经济情况与相应优势产业进行了梳理与分析,对成都经济与各项产业可能受到的冲击以及未来的发展趋势进行研判。研究认为,中美贸易摩擦的直接原因在于贸易失衡,根本目的在于美国要遏制中国的持续发展,因此贸易摩擦将具有长期性,未来会向中高端产业集中;贸易摩擦对成都的整体经济状况影响有限,对成都部分优势产业短期会造成阵痛,但是长期会成为企业自主创新的外部推力。成都应推动企业逐步推进产品品牌建设,提高贸易产品的质量;应加大科技投入,用创新来推动加工贸易的发展;应优化贸易结构,发展高端制造业;充分利用自贸区的政策优势,提高货物贸易中的服务附加值,支持重点企业开拓新市场。

The growing friction between China and the United States will have a far-reachingimpact on actively expanding and opening up the regional economy.Based on the summary of the specific industries involved in the“50+200”billion US dollars tariff policy announced by the United States,this article explores and analyzes the overall regional economy status and corresponding advantageous industries with the center of Chengdu,and studies and determines the possible impacts onthe economy and various industries ofChengdu as well astheir future development trend bythe Sino-US trade frictionin 2018.This paper believes that the direct cause of the Sino-US trade friction lies in trade imbalances.The fundamental cause is that the United States aims to hinder China’s continued progress.Therefore,trade frictions will exist for the longterm and will be concentrated in the middle and high-end industries in the future.Trade frictions have a limited impact on the overall economic situation of Chengdu.They will cause some advantageous industries in Chengdu to suffer economically in the short term,but will become the external thrust of corporate independent innovation in the long run.Chengdu should drive the enterprises to gradually promote product branding and enhance the quality of trade products;increase its input in science and technology and utilize innovation to boost the development of processing trade;optimize the trade structure and develop the high-end manufacturing industry;fully make use of the policy advantages of the free trade areas,enhance the added value of services in the commodity trade,and support key enterprises to open up new markets.