基于Wiener过程气体绝缘母线触头接触失效预测

Contact failure prediction of Gas insulated bus contact on wiener process

气体绝缘母线(GIB)触头是过热性故障的多发部位,而接触电阻的大小是设备能否稳定运行的决定性因素。为了实现对GIB触头接触失效的预测,在时间尺度的非线性Wiener模型与逆幂率加速老化模型基础上,建立了GIB触头的失效预测模型。搭建了GIB触头电接触失效试验平台,开展了SF6和空气介质下GIB触头的载流摩擦磨损试验。通过似然函数参数估计得到不同条件下GIB触头接触电阻退化表达式,进而根据概率分布函数获取触点的接触失效寿命。试验结果与预测结果对比表明所建立失效预测模型的有效性。GIB触点在空气下的寿命22.76年,在SF6下的寿命为43.67年,所建立的失效预测模型可为GIB触头的设计制造和状态检修提供技术支持。

Gas insulated bus contacts are the frequent parts of overheating faults,and the size of contact resistance is the decisive factor for the stable operation of the equipment.In order to predict the contact failure of GIB contacts,a failure prediction model of gas insulated bus contacts is established in this paper based on the nonlinear Wiener model of time scale and the inverse power rate accelerated aging model.A test platform for electric contact failure of gas insulated bus contacts was set up,and a test of current-carrying friction and wear of gas insulated bus contacts under SF6 and air media was carried out.The contact resistance degradation expression of gas insulated bus-bar contacts under different conditions is obtained by the likelihood function parameter estimation,and then,the contact failure life of contacts is obtained according to the probability distribution function.The comparison between the test results and the prediction results shows that the proposed failure prediction model is effective.The service life of GIB contacts under air is 22.76 years,and the service life under SF6 is 43.67 years.The established failure prediction model can provide technical support for the design,manufacture and maintenance of GIB contacts.