矿井通风系统稳定性SD预测仿真分析

SD prediction and simulation analysis on stability of mine ventilation system

为了建立矿井通风系统稳定性水平评价体系,以常村煤矿为研究背景,结合常村煤矿多风井、大风量、高瓦斯等特点,从技术、安全、经济角度建立一系列完整的评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确立指标权重,并结合属性数学理论形成通风系统稳定性综合评价模型,通过构建的模型对其进行综合评价。以通风系统综合评价为基础,从系统动力学角度,对常村煤矿未来2 a的通风系统稳定性水平进行仿真预测,总结其动态变化规律。研究结果表明:通风系统总体稳定性评价结果为良好,属于较稳定水平。常村煤矿通风系统稳定性水平在未来2 a内随着安全投入的增加呈总体增加趋势,但随着矿山通风系统稳定性水平的逐渐增加,稳定性增长速率将会减小。

In order to establish the evaluation system for the stability level of mine ventilation system,taking Changcun coal mine as the research background,a series of complete evaluation index system was established from the perspectives of technology,safety and economy by combining with the characteristics of multiple air shafts,large air volume and high gas in Changcun coal mine.The weights of indexes were determined by using the analytic hierarchy process method,and the final comprehensive evaluation model for the stability of ventilation system was formed by combining with the attribute mathematics theory,then its comprehensive evaluation was conducted by using the constructed model.Based on the comprehensive evaluation of ventilation system,the stability level of ventilation system in Changcun coal mine for the next two years was simulated and predicted from the perspective of system dynamics,and its dynamic change laws were summarized.The results showed that the overall stability evaluation result of ventilation system was good,belonging to the relatively stable level.The stability level of ventilation system in Changcun coal mine would generally increase with the increase of safety input in the next two years,but the stability growth rate would decrease with the gradual increase of stability level of the ventilation system in Changcun coal mine.