城镇油气管道事故应急疏散决策优化

Decision-making optimization of emergency evacuation in accident of urban oil and gas pipeline

为实现油气管道事故中城镇大规模应急疏散的智慧决策,构建基于改进的自适应蚁群算法的应急疏散路径优化模型,开发基于油气管道典型事故后果分析的城镇大规模应急疏散决策优化系统平台(LSSED)。LSSED在地理信息系统平台上,针对油气管道泄漏引起的扩散、喷射火、池火、BLEVE、蒸气云爆炸等典型事故进行事故后果分析,对疏散通道当量长度和疏散时间成本函数进行定量评价,实现大规模应急疏散方案的智慧决策和避难方案的全局优化。案例分析表明,LSSED平台实现了基于地理信息系统的典型事故时变环境信息和应急疏散路径优化算法的数据传递及系统集成,实现了基于事故后果分析的城镇大规模人群疏散路径和避难方案优化,可为城镇安全规划和应急管理提供参考和借鉴。

In order to realize the intelligent decision-making of urban large-scale emergency evacuation in the accident of oil and gas pipeline,a model of path optimization for the emergency evacuation based on the improved adaptive ant colony algorithm was constructed,and a decision-making optimization system platform of urban large-scale emergency evacuation(LSSED)based on the accident consequence analysis of the oil and gas pipeline was developed.On the basis of GIS geographic information system platform,the accident consequence analysis was carried out on the typical accidents such as diffusion,jet fire,pool fire,BLEVE and vapor cloud explosion caused by the leakage of oil and gas pipeline,and the quantitative evaluation was conducted on the equivalent length of evacuation passage and the cost function of evacuation time,thus the intelligent decision-making of large-scale emergency evacuation scheme and the global optimization of sheltering scheme were realized.The case analysis showed that the LSSED platform realized the data transmission and system integration of typical time-varying accident environmental information and optimization algorithm of emergency evacuation path based on the GIS geographic information system,as well as the optimization of evacuation path and sheltering scheme for the urban large-scale emergency evacuation based on the accident consequence analysis.It can provide reference for the urban safety planning and emergency management.