金砖机制下中国与巴西农产品贸易潜力研究——基于拓展引力模型

Trade Potential of Agricultural Products between China and Brazil under the BRICS Mechanism——based on the Extended Gravity Model

基于2003-2017年中国与巴西农产品双边贸易数据,文章分析了两国农产品贸易规模和商品结构,发现中国对巴西农产品贸易逆差明显,而且贸易产品结构较为集中。进而运用拓展后的贸易引力模型,选取2017年与中国农产品贸易额排名前20的国家和地区的面板数据,实证分析各种因素对双边贸易规模的影响程度,并在此基础上测算中国和巴西农产品贸易的潜力。结果发现,中国与贸易伙伴国双方的经济规模、建立自由贸易区和加入金砖国家组织能显著促进双方农产品贸易;而贸易双方的距离、双方的人口总量和人均收入差额对双方农产品贸易起到了负向作用;汇率水平以及是否同属于世界贸易组织则没有产生显著影响。对于中国与巴西而言,两国农产品贸易属于"潜力再造型",按照现有模式未来双边贸易的发展潜力较小。基于上述研究,本文最后针对如何寻找新的贸易增长点提出了针对性的政策建议。

Based on the data of agricultural bilateral trade between China and Brazil from 2003 to 2017,the scale and structure of agricultural trade between the two countries are analyzed. It is found that China’s trade deficit of agricultural products with Brazil is outstanding,and the structure of trade products is relatively concentrated. Then,based on the extended trade gravity model,selected the panel data of 20 countries and regions which top China’s agricultural trade list in year 2017,the impact of various factors on bilateral trade is analyzed empirically,and the trade potential of agricultural products between China and Brazil is estimated. The results show that the economic scale of China and its trading partners,the establishment of free trade zones and the accession to BRICS countries have positive impact on the scale of agricultural trade between the two sides. While,the geographical distance,the total population and the difference of per capita income play negative roles in agricultural trade. The factors of exchange rate levels and whether they belong to the World Trade Organization have no significant impact. For China and Brazil,the trade of agricultural products between the two countries belongs to"potential re-engineering"type,indicating that if following the existing trade mode,the development potential of bilateral trade in the future will be weak. Finally some policy suggestions targeting on how to find new trade growth points are proposed.