基于SVR模型的水环境承载力评价方法及其应用

Evaluation Method of Water Environment Carrying Capacity Based on SVR Model and Its Application

对流域水环境承载力进行评价研究,不仅能够判断出流域水环境系统与流域人类活动是否协调,还能为调节流域社会经济活动与水环境协调发展提供理论依据.为了描述流域水环境系统的内在机理,完善表达水环境与人类社会经济活动间的因果关系,加强驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应五大因子间的协调管理,提高整个水环境系统的联动性与整体性,在DPSIR模型的基础加入管理因子,构建DPSIRM模型,并基于DPSIRM模型从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应、管理6个方面出发构建水环境承载力评价指标体系.利用SVR模型测算渭河流域陕西段近十年的水环境承载等级,结果表明:渭河流域陕西段水环境承载力等级整体呈现升高态势,由2009年的II级提升到了2018年的IV级,渭河流域陕西省段的水环境质量得到明显提升.评价结果符合客观实际,说明基于SVR模型的评价体系有效可行.研究旨在为流域水环境承载力评价提供一种新方法.

Evaluation on water environment carrying capacity not only helps to judge the coordination between water environment and human activities,but also provides a theoretical basis to reconcile the development between social-economic activities and water environment.In order to explore the inherent mechanism of the river water environment system and to perfect the causality between water environment and human activities,and to strengthen the coordination management among the factors including driving force,pressure,status,influence and response,so as to improve the synchronism and integrality of the water environment,DPSIRM model was built with the affiliation of management factor based on DPSIR model,and the water environment bearing capacity index system was thus constituted based on the model.The water environment carrying grade of Weihe river basin in Shaanxi province was calculated via SVR Model,the result shows that the grade has upgraded from level II in 2009 to level IV in 2018 with an upward trend in a whole,the water environment quality in Shaanxi province has been significantly improved.The result of the assessment conforms to the objective reality,it indicates the effectiveness and feasibility of the evaluation system based on SVR Model.The research aims to provide a new method for the evaluation of water environment carrying capacity in river basins.