税收对产业发展的影响研究

Tax Influence on Industrial Development——the Empirical Test of Corporate Income Tax and Corporate Sales Revenue

政府的税收行为会对产业发展产生重要的影响力,但实证研究领域却少有研究提供了有关企业所得税影响产业发展的相关成果。文章采用"十二五"期间(2011-2015)沪深A股上市公司样本为考察对象,研究了企业所得税与企业销售收入增长率的关系,以检验政府经济措施对产业发展的潜在效应。数据分析表明企业税负的增加对企业销售收入增长率存在抑制效应;并且与较低税负相比,较高税负具有更高的抑制效应;与对较高营收企业相比,对较低营收企业的抑制作用更强。同时税负的增加对企业销售收入增长率产生抑制效应的可能渠道是,在税负增加的情况下,占比最大的产品(项目)销售收入的增长率显著地受到来自税负增加的影响,而占比最大的产品(项目)销售收入的增长率极大地影响着企业整体的销售收入增长率,通过税负的增加与占比最大的产品(项目)销售收入增长率的交互作用,会对企业整体的销售收入增长率产生抑制效应。

Government’s tax has an important impact on industrial development,but few empirical studies provide empirical evidence on the impact of corporate income tax on industrial development.Hence,the relationship between enterprise income tax and the growth rate of enterprise sales income,using the sample of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen during the 12th Five-Year Plan period(2011-2015),will be studied to test the potential effect of government economic measures on industrial development.Statistical tests show that the increase of tax burden has an inhibiting effect on the growth rate of sales revenue;and higher tax burden has a higher inhibiting effect than lower tax burden.Besides,the inhibiting effect on lower revenue enterprises is stronger than higher revenue enterprises.Further research showes that the possible channels of inhibiting the growth rate of sales revenue are presented as follow:when the tax burden increases,the growth rate of sales revenue of products(projects)with the largest proportion is substantially affected by the increase of tax burden,and the growth rate of sales revenue of products(projects)with the largest proportion substantially affects the overall growth rate of sales revenue of enterprises.The growth rate,through the interaction between the increase of tax burden and the growth rate of the products(projects)sales revenue of with the largest proportion,will have a inhibiting effect on the overall growth rate of sales revenue of the enterprise.The new insights and empirical evidence are provided for government decision-making departments to deal with the relationship between tax revenue and industrial development.