2003年～2017年中国各省市人口出生率空间格局多角度分析

Multi-angle Analysis of the Spatial Pattern of Population Birth Rate in Chinese Provinces and Cities from 2003 to 2017

为揭示我国人口出生率随地域分布的特点,本文以2003年、2006年、2009年、2012年、2015年、2017年六个时间段全国31个省市自治区的人口出生率数据为基础,研究从2003年到2017年这一时期内各省市人口出生率的整体变化情况,并通过热点分析、莫兰指数(Moran’s I)来反映人口出生率的空间聚集性和空间相关性,通过分析人口出生率重心的迁移过程来反映空间异质性。结果表明:我国各省市人口出生率的空间聚集性显著,主要集中在东部和西部地区,且人口出生率呈现出西部地区明显高于东部地区的特点;通过人口出生率重心迁移规律可以看出,在2003年至2017年期间,我国人口出生率重心整体向东移动。根据以上结论,国家应合理制定生育政策,因地制宜,从多方面出发来解决我国人口出生率低以及老龄化基数大的问题。

In order to reveal the characteristics of China′s population birth rate with geographical distribution.Based on the population birth rate data of 31 provinces,cities and autonomous region in China in 2003,2006,2009,2012,2015 and 2017,this paper studies the birth rate of provinces and cities from 2003 to 2017.And the hotspot analysis,Moran's I were used to reflect the spatial clustering and spatial correlation of the birth rate,and the spatial heterogeneity was reflected by analyzing the migration process of the birth rate center of gravity.The results show that the spatial clustering rate of birth rates in various provinces and cities in China is significant,and it is mainly concentrated in the eastern and western regions.At the same time,the birth rate shows that the western region is significantly higher than that in the eastern region.It can be seen from the law of population birth rate shift that between 2003 and 2017,the center of gravity of China′s birth rate has moved eastward.According to the above conclusions,China should rationally formulate the birth policy,adapt to local conditions,and solve the problem of low birth rate and large aging base in China from various aspects.