基于CLUE-S模型的柳州市2025年土地变化情景模拟分析

Simulation Analysis of Land Change in 2025 in Liuzhou City Based on CLUE-S Model

以解译的2009年土地利用类型数据为基期数据,通过CLUE-S模型来模拟2016年柳州市土地利用空间分布图,与解译的2016年土地利用类型图对比,模拟结果的Kappa系数达到0.8379,表明模拟精度较高。以此模型模拟了2025年自然增长和耕地保护2个不同情景的土地类型图,经过分析,情景Ⅱ比较符合柳州市未来发展情况,柳州市未来可能出现耕地撂荒情况,并提出了相关对策。

Based on the interpreted 2009 land use type data as the base period data,the spatial distribution map of land use in Liuzhou City in 2016 was simulated by the CLUE-S model,and compared with the interpretation of the 2016 land use type map,the Kappa coefficient of the simulation results reached 0.8379,which indicated that simulation precision was higher.Using this model to simulate the land type map of two different scenarios of natural growth and cultivated land protection in 2025,scenariosⅡwas in line with the future development of Liuzhou after analysis,it showed that farmland uncultivated map appeared in Liuzhou in future,and some countermeasures were pointed out.