环境承载力评价方法及其业务化应用:进展与展望

Evaluation methods of environmental carrying capacity and their operational applications: progress and prospect

开展环境承载力评价,建立资源环境承载力监测预警机制,是当前我国推进生态文明建设和加强生态环境管理的重要任务。总结了当前国内外环境承载力评价的方法,包括指标体系评价法、系统模型法、环境容量法及供需平衡法等,比较了各方法的内涵、表征形式及优缺点;分析了环境承载力评价方法在业务化应用中存在的不足,即评价方法综合性不够,评价结果预测作用弱,区域开放性和尺度效应考虑不足,应用性不足等问题;着眼于环境承载力评价方法的业务化应用,提出今后应进一步在区域生态环境系统综合评价、差异化的指标体系构建、评价方法的标准化、评价结果的模拟预测功能实现4个方面开展研究。

It is an important task for China to carry out the environmental carrying capacity evaluation(ECCE)and establish the monitoring and early warning mechanism of resources and environment carrying capacity in ecological civilization construction and ecological and environmental management.The current evaluation methods of ECCE at home and abroad were summarized,including index system evaluation method,system model method,environmental capacity method and supply and demand balance method,and the connotation,representation forms,advantages and disadvantages of each method were compared.The shortcomings of the evaluation method of environmental carrying capacity in the operational application were analyzed,such as the insufficient comprehensiveness of the evaluation method,the weak prediction effect of the evaluation result,the insufficient consideration of the regional openness and scale effect,and the insufficient application.Focusing on the operational application of ECCE method,it was suggested that further research should be carried out in four aspects,including comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological environment system,construction of differentiated index system,standardization of evaluation methods,and realization of simulation and prediction function of evaluation results.