摘要
全球暖化背景下,极端天气多发,严重威胁供电企业供电可靠性。随着城市电网建设水平的快速提高,如何提高极端天气下的供电可靠性,逐渐成为城市电网规划设计和调度运行的重要目标。整理分析东莞电网10 kV线路运行故障数据,分析了配电线路故障跳闸的统计分布特性及其形成机理。采用格兰杰检验进行的分析表明,极端天气造成的故障高发日中永久性故障比例明显高于平均水平,使得故障恢复时间延长,也是影响极端天气条件下电网可靠供电的重要原因。
With the frequent occurrence of extreme weather caused by global warming,the power supply re liability of power supply enterprises is seriously threatened.With the rapid improvement of urban power grid construction level,how to improve the reliability of power supply in extreme weather has gradually become an important target of urban power grid planning,designing and dispatching.This paper sorts and analyzes the op eration fault data of 10 kV line of Dongguan power grid.And the paper also analyzes the statistical distribution characteristics and forming mechanism of faulty tripping of the distribution line.Finally,the paper makes a Granger causality test and analysis,which shows that the proportion of permanent failures due to extreme weather is significantly higher than the average,causing the failure recovery time to be prolonged,and this is also an important factor affecting the reliable power supply in extreme weather conditions.
作者
蓝新斌
廖鹏
刘贯科
刘元
苏盛
LAN Xinbin;LIAO Peng;LIU Guanke;LIU Yuan;SU Sheng(Power dispatching and control Center,Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou Guangdong 530100;Dongguan Power Supply Bureau,Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Dongguan Guangdong 530600;Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Smart Grids Operation and Control,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha Hunan 410004,China)
出处
《湖北电力》
2019年第4期51-56,共6页
Hubei Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助课题(项目编号:51777015)
关键词
配电线路
极端天气
格兰杰因果关系检验
幂律分布
永久性故障
distribution line
extreme weather
Granger causality test
power law distribution
permanent fault