考虑变动水位因素的船舶撞击风险分析

Risk Analysis of Ship Colliding with Bridge for Water Level Change

以长江航道南京段的水位因素为研究对象,分析长江航道南京段最高水位出现的规律及其对船舶撞击桥梁风险的影响。优化现有的船撞桥风险分析模型,在船舶撞击概率模型中引入变动水位的影响因素。经验证,该模型能较好地预测桥梁遭受船舶撞击的情况,为计算船舶撞击桥梁的概率提供参考。

The statistical law of the highest water level in the Nanjing section of the Yangtze River and the impact of the water level change on the risk of ship-bridge collision are investigated.The existing model for ship-bridge collision risk analysis is improved through introducing a factor reflecting water level change into the model.