高速铁路对城市用地扩张的影响——基于多期双重差分法的验证

Evaluating the Impact of High-speed Railway on Urban Land Expansion Based on Multi-period Difference-in-Difference Model

研究目的:探究高铁建设是否能显著影响城市用地扩张。研究方法:基于中国223个地级市2003-2016年数据,采用多期双重差分模型、倾向匹配得分法与工具变量法探讨高铁站开通与否、高铁站数量和高铁线路数量对区域城市用地扩张的影响。研究结果:高铁站开通、高铁线路和高铁站数量的增加都会显著促进区域城市用地面积的增长。其中,高铁站从无到有对二者影响最大,分别促进城市建设用地面积平均增长4.2%和城市建成区面积平均增长6.1%;每新增一条高铁线路分别促进城市建设用地面积增长2.5%和城市建成区面积增长3.4%;每新增一个高铁站点分别促进城市建设用地面积增长1.1%和城市建成区面积增长1.3%。当人均生产总值大于17 008.74元/年,二、三产业比重高于82.36%或城市非农业人口数量大于185.29万人时,首次开通高铁能够显著促进城市用地扩张。高铁站开通与否对东部地区城市用地面积增长有显著影响,而对中西部地区的影响不明显。研究结论:高铁建设对城市土地利用转换的影响不限于其所在的城市外围,而是扩大到所在的地级市区域,且依赖于城市本身的经济、产业与人口规模水平,具有区域异质性。高铁站点选址应考虑其对周边生态环境的影响。同时,高铁路网规划应从全国尺度上考虑其对土地利用效应的经济、产业、人口和区域异质性,以使资源配置最优。

This paper aims to explore whether high-speed railway construction can significantly affect the spatial expansion of urban land. The multi-period difference-in-difference model, propensity score matching and instrumental variable method are employed to explore the impact of the opening of high-speed railway stations, the number of highspeed railway stations and the number of high-speed railway lines on the spatial growth of regional urban built-up areas and urban core area based on the data of 223 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016. The results show that the opening of high-speed railway stations, the increase of the numbers of high-speed railway lines and high-speed railway stations significantly promoted the growth of regional urban construction land and urban core area. The opening of highspeed railway stations showed the greatest impact, promoting an average increase of 4.2% in urban core area and an average 6.1% increase of regional built-up area, respectively. A new high-speed railway line led to 2.5% growth of urban core area and 3.4% growth of regional built-up area, respectively. A new high-speed railway station resulted in 1.1% growth of urban core area and 1.3% growth of regional built-up area, respectively. When the GDP per capita is greater than 17 008.74 yuan per year, the proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries was higher than 82.36%, or the urban nonagricultural population was greater than 1.852 million, the opening of high-speed railway station significantly promoted urban land expansion. The opening of the high-speed railway station showed the significant impact on the expansion of urban land in the eastern region, but its impact on the central and western regions was not obvious. In conclusion, the impact of high-speed rail construction on urban land use conversion was not limited to the periphery of the city, but extended to the prefecture-level city areas, which also depended on the city’s economy, industry and population scale, and had regional heterogeneity. The location of the high-speed railway site should consider its impact on the surrounding ecological environment. Meanwhile, when we plan the high railway network, we should consider the economic, industrial, demographic and regional heterogeneity of land use effects on a national scale to optimize resource allocation.