基于预警机的协同中制导截获概率研究

On Acquisition Probability of Cooperative Midcourse Guidance Based on Early Warning Aircraft

为定量分析基于预警机的协同中制导精度对误差的灵敏度,对协同中制导条件下的截获概率进行建模研究。首先,对基于预警机的协同中制导方案进行可行性分析;接着,根据制导方案进行中制导指令计算流程分析,建立中制导指令计算模型;然后,分析影响协同中制导的5项误差源,对每项误差建模,并将各误差模型加入中制导指令计算模型,采用蒙特卡罗法计算协同中制导截获概率;最后,以蒙特卡罗模型为基础,采用正交实验法分析协同中制导截获概率对误差的灵敏度。根据方差分析结果,结合当前预警机与战斗机在制导性能方面的差异,得出结论:为实现基于预警机的中制导技术,提高预警机雷达搜索周期和预警机测高精度是当前亟需完成的任务。

In order to quantitatively analyze the sensitivity of early-warning aircraft based cooperative midcourse-guidance accuracy to errors the acquisition probability under cooperative midcourse-guidance is modeled.Firstly the feasibility of cooperative midcourse guidance scheme based on early warning aircraft is analyzed.Secondly the calculation process of midcourse guidance command is analyzed according to the guidance scheme and the model for midcourse-guidance command calculation is established.Then five error sources affecting cooperative midcourse guidance are analyzed and each error is modeled which is then added to the midcourse-guidance command calculation model.Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the acquisition probability of cooperative midcourse guidance.Finally based on Monte Carlo model the sensitivity of acquisition probability of cooperative midcourse guidance to errors is analyzed by orthogonal experiment method.According to variance analysis results and the differences between guidance performance of early warning aircraft and fighter aircraft it is concluded that the urgent task of realizing early-warning aircraft based midcourse guidance is to improve the radar search cycle and the height measurement accuracy of the early warning aircraft.