贵州省数值预报风速产品检验及订正

Verification and revision of numerical models for wind speed forecast in Guizhou Province

运用概率统计的方法,检验了的ECWMF、GRAPES和JAPAN模式对于贵州省范围内84个站点的风速预报的平均绝对误差、标准差、相关系数和正确率,EC模式平均误差在-1.9~1.7 m/s之间,GAPES模式在-3.1~0 m/s之间,JAPAN模式在-3~1.9 m/s之间;平均绝对误差EC模式在0.6~2.1 m/s之间,GAPES模式在1.1~3.3 m/s之间,JAPAN模式在0.6~3.1 m/s之间,全省站点相关系数平均数EC模式和JAPAN模式为0.5,GRAPES模式为0.4,风速预报误差绝对值为2 m/s的准确率全省平均值EC为83%,最低为织金的54%;GRAPES模式为56%,最低为长顺的32%;JAPAN模式为75%,最低为长顺的29%。并分9个地州对3个模式的预报效果进行对比,发现EC模式的预报效果明显优于其他两个模式。其中,EC模式对铜仁地区的预报效果最好,黔西南的预报效果最差;GRAPES模式对遵义地区的预报效果最好,毕节地区的预报效果最差;JAPAN模式对遵义地区的预报效果最好,黔西南地区的预报效果最差。3个模式中有两个在黔西南地区的预报效果不佳。运用BP神经网络方式对3种模式风速预报进行订正,对于3个模式订正后的预报效果均有明显改善,其中误差、正确率的改善较为明显,相关系数的提高较小。

The average absolute error,standard deviation,correlation coefficient and accuracy of ECWMF,GRAPES and JAPAN models for wind speed prediction of 84 stations in Guizhou Province were tested by statistics.The average error of EC model is between-1.9 and 1.7,GAPES model is between-3.1 and 0,JAPAN model is between-3 and 1.9,and the average absolute error of EC model is between 0.6 and 2.1.Among them,GAPES model is between 1.1 and 3.3,JAPAN model is between 0.6 and 3.1,EC model and JAPAN model are 0.5,GRAPES model is 0.4,the average EC accuracy of absolute 2 m·s-1 value in Guizhou in the prediction error is 83%,the lowest is 54%in Zhijin.GRAPES model is 56%,the lowest is 32%in Changshun,JAPAN model is 75%,the lowest is 29%in Changshun.By comparing the forecasting results of the three models in 9 prefecture cities,it is found that the forecasting effect of the EC model is better than the other two models.Among them,EC model has the best forecasting effect in Tongren area,southwest Guizhou is the worst,GRAPES model is the best in Zunyi area and Bijie area is the worst;JAPAN model is also the best in Zunyi area and the worst in southwest Guizhou.Two of the three models have poor forecasting effect in southwestern Guizhou.The BP neural network is adopted to revise the wind speed prediction of the two models,and the results of the three models are improved obviously.The improvement of error and accuracy is obvious,and the improvement of correlation coefficient is small.