中国与中东欧16国贸易效率和潜力研究——基于非效率项随机前沿引力模型

An Empirical Research on the Trade Efficiency and Potential of the Bilateral Trade between China and the 16 Countries in Central and Eastern Europe:Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

贸易效率和贸易潜力是衡量国际贸易有效程度、确定未来贸易发展方向的重要指标。基于非效率项随机前沿引力模型,分别在"16+1"和"16+1+10"背景下测算了中国与中东欧16国的贸易效率和潜力,结果表明:中国与中东欧国家的双边贸易效率较高,但贸易潜力不显著;中国对中东欧国家的出口贸易效率低于双边贸易效率,出口贸易潜力超过双边贸易潜力;出口贸易潜力在"16+1+10"背景下较"16+1"背景下有显著提高。由此,提出进一步落实"16+1"合作机制、扩大进口、改进交通运输设施的建议,以期实现贸易潜力,提高贸易效率。

Trade efficiency and trade potential are important indicators for measuring the effectiveness of international trade and determining the direction of future trade development.Based on the inefficiency stochastic frontier gravity model,this paper measures the trade efficiency and potential of China and 16 countries in Central and Eastern Europe under the background of"16+1"and"16+1+10".The results show that the trade efficiency between China and the Central and Eastern European countries is relatively high,but the trade potential is not significant.China’s export trade efficiency to Central and Eastern European countries is lower than that of bilateral trade,and the export trade potential exceeds bilateral trade potential.The export trade potential under"16+1+10"is significant higher than that under"16+1".Therefore,this paper proposes to further implement the"16+1"cooperation mechanism,expand imports,and improve transportation facilities,to realize trade potential and improve trade efficiency.