中国水产品出口贸易持续时间研究——基于生存分析法

The Research on the Duration of China’s Aquatic Products Export Trade Based on Survival Analysis

基于WITS数据库中1996—2017年HS-6分位水产品出口贸易的微观数据,运用生存分析法对中国水产品出口贸易持续时间及影响因素进行分析。研究发现,中国水产品出口持续期较短,水产品贸易的生存函数具有负的时间依存性,且贸易关系具有"门槛效应",贸易关系存续时间超过4年后,贸易中断概率明显下降。采用Cloglog模型分别从国家和产品层面对影响持续时间的因素进行分析,结果显示,传统引力变量对贸易持续期的影响并不大,而产品层面的特征变量及汇率变动等对贸易持续期影响显著。

Based on the micro data of the export trade of aquatic products,in the WITS database from 1996 to 2017,at the disaggregated HS-6-digit level,and using the survival analysis method,we analyze the trade relation duration and influencing factors of China s aquatic products export trade.The study shows that the export of aquatic products in China has a short duration,and the survival function of aquatic products trade has a negative time dependence,and the trade relationship has a"threshold effect".After the trade relationship lasts for more than four years,the probability of trade interruption is significantly reduced.Using the Cloglog model,we analyze the factors affecting the duration from the national and product levels.The results show that the traditional gravity variables have little effect on the trade duration,while the characteristic variables and exchange rate changes have a significant impact on the duration time.