奥运女子投掷类冠军年龄分布特征及贝叶斯估计

Distribution Characteristics and Bayesian Estimation of the Ages of Olympic Women Throwing Champions

运用贝叶斯统计法对奥运会历届女子投掷类,共62+2个冠军年龄数据进行分析和估计,这对国内女子投掷类项目的后备衔接及新老更替具有参考意义。研究表明:女子铅球、标枪和链球项目的最佳夺冠年龄分别为24、25和30岁,女子铁饼为27~28岁,其中女子铅球项目对年龄干预较为敏感;未来各项目夺冠年龄估计:女子链球(30.20岁)>女子铁饼(26.84岁)>女子铅球(26.40岁)>女子标枪(25.98岁),其中铁饼和标枪项目冠军年龄具有"年轻化"趋势,而铅球和链球项目具有"大龄化"走势,且各项最佳夺冠年龄变化与此相同;未来各项冠军竞技年限比较:女子铅球>女子标枪>女子铁饼项目,链球项目由于先验信息不同,无法参与比较,但各项均有下降。2020年东京奥运会的中国女子投掷项目中,女子铁饼项目最有希望夺牌。

The age data of 62 + 2 Olympic women throwing champions are analyzed and estimated by Bayesian statistical method, which is instructive for women’s throwing events in China in the reserve force building-up and the succession of the new to the old. The study shows that the optimum age for woman championship at shot put, javelin throw and hammer throw is 24, 25 and 30 years old respectively, and is 27 to 28 years old at discus throw. Among them, women’s shot put is more sensitive to age intervention. The estimated age for future event’s championship is:women’s hammer throw(30.20 years old)>women’s discus throw(26.84 years old)>women’s shot put(26.40 years old) >women’s javelin throw(25.98 years old). Among them, discus and javelin champions tend to be "younger",while shot put and hammer throw tend to be "older", and the best championship age for each event changes the same way;the future championship competition years are compared as: women shot put > women javelin throw > women discus throw, and hammer throw, due to different prior information, cannot be included in the comparison, but all years have been lowered. In the year 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, women’s discus throw is most promising for Chinese women’s throwing events.