中国煤矿伤害事故变化趋势分析

Secular Trend of China’s Coal Mine Accidental Casualties

目的通过分析社会经济等影响因素与事故伤害数据,研究其特征及变化趋势,为建立伤害防控机制提供依据。方法根据2001—2012国家安全生产监督管理总局、国家统计局等公布的事故报告资料数据,统计事故频次、死亡人数。选用相关社会经济、卫生等10项指标,采用描述性分析方法和多因素相关逐步回归分析方法进行回归系数估计及统计检验。结果全国2001—2012年累计煤矿安全事故26157次,总死亡人数为64529人,原煤生产总量为21799百万吨标准煤。事故年死亡人数自2005年起出现下降趋势。多因素相关分析发现:损伤、中毒和外部原因导致的死亡构成比和工业对GDP的贡献率均与百万吨煤煤矿安全事故死亡率呈正相关;环境污染治理投入/GDP和火力发电量/发电总量均与百万吨煤煤矿安全事故死亡率呈负相关。结论中国的煤炭事故安全不但与经济发展模式、社会经济发展水平紧密相关,也与医疗卫生、环境保护水平相关,可为今后制定安全事故灾害救援政策提供依据。

Objective To provide basis mechanism for disaster medicine aids and injury prevention of accidents in China.Methods We adopt descriptive research approach to describe the coal mine accident data and epidemiological characteristics released from January 1,2001 to December 31,2012 by the State Administration of Work Safety of China.Mortality data were retrospectively analyzed with event frequency,total coal production,type of accident and the number of deaths.For this study we select 10 different social,economical,environmental variables.We used multiple linear regression statistics to investigate the association between mortality rate of coal mine accident per one million tons of coal production and these 10 variables.Results A total of 26157 coal mine accidents were reported during this period,which related in 64529 deaths.The total coal production was 21799 million tons of standard coal.Proportional mortality indicators due to injury,poisoning and external causes,the contribution of industry to GDP,which were positively correlated with coal mine accident mortality.While investment in environmental pollution control/GDP and coal-fired power generation/total power generation(%)were negatively correlated with the coal mine accident mortality.Conclusions China’s coal mine safety is not only closely related with its economic development model and the level of social and economic development,but also associated with its improvement in health care and environmental protection regulation.Strength of supervision and adjustment of public health policy are needed in China for the future disaster rescue tasks.