实现可持续发展目标（SDGs）中降低道路交通事故目标预测——中国、日本和柬埔寨比较研究

Achieving the Target of Reducing Road Traffic Accidents in Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)——A Comparative Study of China, Japan, and Cambodia

目的比较中国、日本和柬埔寨因道路交通事故造成的死伤情况,预测三个国家能否实现可持续发展目标中设定的到2020年将道路交通事故死伤人数降低一半的目标,分析三个国家交通伤害变化的主要原因和在控制道路交通事故方面的经验,为三个国家达成目标提供相互借鉴的依据。方法分析来自国家统计局中国的交通事故数据和WHO网站公布的日本和柬埔寨的相同数据,比较三个国家因道路交通事故造成的死伤情况,并采用趋势外推法预测到2020年死亡和受伤人数的变化趋势。结果死亡率、万车死亡率和亿元GDP事故死亡率均是柬埔寨最高,中国次之,日本最低;中国、日本和柬埔寨因道路交通事故死亡群体中占比最大的人群不同:中国是汽车驾驶员,日本是行人,柬埔寨是两轮和三轮摩托车驾驶员;日本的道路交通事故受伤人数和受伤率远高于中国和柬埔寨。三个国家都难以实现到2020年死伤减半的目标。结论三个国家都需要进一步采取措施来控制和预防道路交通事故,尽管三个国家交通伤害变化的主要原因均不相同,但在预防和控制道路交通事故方面都有成功的经验可以互相借鉴。要实现目标需要多部门的合作和协调、多措并举。

Objective To compare the death and injury caused by road traffic accidents in China,Japan and Cambodia,and predict whether the three countries can achieve the goal of reducing the number of road traffic accidents by half by 2020 set in the goal of sustainable development.Meanwhile,the experience and lessons of the three countries in reducing road traffic accidents could provide a basis for mutual reference.Methods Analyzing the traffic accident data of China,Japan and Cambodia published by the National Bureau of Statistics and WHO,comparing the fatalities and injuries caused by road traffic accidents in the three countries,and then forecasting the variation trend in fatalities and injuries by 2020 by means of trend extrapolation method.Results Of the three countries,Cambodia has the highest mortality,deaths per 10000 vehicles and accident death rates per 100 million GDP,followed by China and Japan in the order;the three countries are different in the biggest share of the deaths caused by road traffic accidents:passengers and drivers of cars in China,pedestrians in Japan,and motorcycle drivers in Cambodia;The number of injured and injury rate of road traffic accidents in Japan are much higher compared to China and Cambodia.The trend extrapolation projection reveals the low possibilities for the three countries to achieve the target of halving the numbers of death and injury caused by road traffic accidents by 2020.Conclusions Further measures need to be implemented for the three countries to reduce and prevent road traffic accidents.The three countries should learn from each other in their successes in preventing and reducing road traffic accidents.Multi-sectoral cooperation and coordination as well as multi-measures are needed to achieve the goal of halving the numbers of death and injury caused by road traffic accidents by 2020.