中国省际就业格局时空演变研究——基于动态空间杜宾面板模型的实证

A Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Interprovincial Employment Patterns in China——Empirical analysis based on dynamic space Dubin panel model

基于1993~2017年中国31个省域面板数据,综合运用矩统计法、探索性空间数据法和动态空间杜宾面板模型,研究中国省际就业格局的时空演变。结果表明:省际就业格局演进具有两极化、空间依赖和空间分层特征,无论短期还是长期,占主导地位的驱动因素都是工业偏离、人户偏离和经济差距,工业、农业、出口和城镇化等虽说会影响格局,但不会导致失衡。为实现省际经济充分平衡发展,关键要实施户籍匹配工业布局、加快户籍制度改革、完善社会保障体系、稳步推进产业区位梯度转移与承接、促进区域就业格局协调演进。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1993 to 2017,this paper uses the method of moment statistics,exploratory spatial data,and the dynamic spatial Dubin panel model to study the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s inter-provincial employment pattern.The results show that the evolution of inter-provincial employment pattern has the characteristics of polarization,spatial dependence and spatial stratification.Whether short-term or long-term,the dominant driving factors are industrial deviation,household deviation and economic disparity.Although industry,agriculture,exports and urbanization will affect the pattern,but they will not cause imbalances.In order to achieve a fully balanced development of the inter-provincial economy,the key is to implement the household registration industry layout,accelerate the reform of the household registration system,improve the social security system,steadily advance the transfer and acceptance of industrial location gradients,and promote the coordinated evolution of regional employment patterns.