长江经济带用水量时空差异的驱动效应研究——基于生产和生活视角

Driving Effect of Spatial-temporal Differences in Water Use in the Yangtze River Economic Zone from the Perspective of Production and Domestic

分解长江经济带生产用水量、生活用水量时空差异的驱动效应,有利于用水总量控制目标的顺利实现。采用LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)方法,兼顾生产用水和生活用水,将用水总量时空差异分解为生产强度效应、产业结构效应、经济规模效应、生活强度效应和人口规模效应。结果显示:生产用水量是长江经济带及各省份用水总量变化的主要来源,生活用水量对用水总量的促增作用也逐渐增强;生产强度效应、产业结构效应是抑制用水总量增加的主要和次要因素,而经济规模效应、生活强度效应是促进用水总量增加的主要和次要因素,人口规模效应对用水总量的促增作用相对较弱;农业、工业经济增长都促进了用水总量增加,尤其是农业,农业、工业用水强度普遍下降及农业增加值所占比重下降,都促进了用水总量下降;生产用水量是各省份用水总量空间差异的主要来源,各省份用水总量与江苏、重庆空间差异的驱动因素存在差异性。因此,各省份应该贯彻落实高质量发展、转变经济增长方式,重点开展生产环节节水、兼顾生活环节,继续降低产业用水强度、优化升级产业结构,加强生活用水定额管理、提高节水意识,各省份可以以江苏、重庆为参考对象,依据用水总量空间差异驱动因素,充分挖掘可行的节水路径。

Decomposing the driving effect of spatio-temporal differences in production water use and domestic water use in the Yangtze River Economic Zone is conducive to the smooth realization of the total water use control goal.In this paper,Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)is adopted to give consideration to both production water and domestic water.The spatio-temporal difference of water use is decomposed into production intensity effect,industrial structure effect,economic scale effect,domestic intensity effect and population scale effect.The results show that the production water use is the main source of the change of total water use in the Yangtze River Economic Zone and each province,and domestic water use on the increase of total water use is gradually enhanced.Production intensity effect and industrial structure effect are the primary and secondary factors to inhibit the increase of total water use respectively,while economic scale effect and domestic intensity effect are the primary and secondary factors to promote the increase of total water use.Population scale effect is relatively weak in promoting the increase of total water use.Economic growth in agriculture and industry has contributed to the increase in total water use,especially in agriculture.The general decline in the water intensity in agriculture and industry and the decline in the proportion of agriculture added value have contributed to the decline in total water use.Production water use is the main source of spatial difference of total water use among provinces,and the driving factors of spatial difference in total water use between each province and Jiangsu and Chongqing are different.Therefore,all provinces should implement high-quality development,change the mode of economic growth,and focus on saving water in production link and taking into account of living conditions.We will also continue to reduce the intensity of industrial water use,optimize and upgrade the industrial structure,strengthen the management of domestic water quotas and raise people’s awareness of water-saving.The provinces can take Jiangsu and Chongqing as the reference objects and fully explore feasible water-saving paths according to the driving factors of spatial difference of total water use.