基于PSR模型的深度贫困县脱贫进程评价——以四川省为例

Evaluation of Poverty Alleviation Process in Counties at High Poverty Levels Based on PSR Model: A Case of Sichuan Province

基于PSR(压力-状态-响应)模型构建深度贫困县脱贫进程评价指标体系,采用熵值法对各地区脱贫压力、脱贫状态和政府响应等脱贫进程进行定量分析和综合评价,并以四川省为例进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)到2020年,四川深度贫困县整体性脱贫目标可达成;(2)深度贫困县脱贫基础与脱贫速度各异,脱贫进程呈现"集中+分散"的分布特征;(3)深度贫困县内部脱贫进程不均衡,脱贫面临潜在挑战。脱贫基础相对较好的地区应加快由脱贫速度向脱贫质量转变,引入风险识别与防范机制,重点谨防"暂时脱贫"陷阱,将重心放在稳定脱贫,注重巩固脱贫成果和脱贫质量;而脱贫基础较弱的大凉山彝区现阶段仍需聚焦脱贫速度,依靠经济发展的益贫作用打破深度贫困陷阱。在重点支持深度贫困县的同时,还需细分片区内部差异,避免"平均主义"倾向和行动趋同,提高政策瞄准度。

Based on the PSR(Pressure-State-Response)model,the evaluation index system of poverty alleviation process in counties at deep poverty levels is constructed.The entropy method is used to quantitatively analyze and comprehensively evaluate the poverty alleviation process,such as poverty alleviation pressure,poverty alleviation and government response.This paper takes Sichuan Province as an example for empirical analysis.Results show that:(1)By 2020,the goal of alleviating poverty in Sichuan’s counties at deep poverty levels will have been achieved;(2)Counties at deep poverty levels are different in endowments to which poverty alleviation is closely related and in poverty-alleviating progress,and the poverty alleviation process showcases the distributional feature of"concentration and dispersion".(3)Inside counties at deep poverty levels,the process of poverty alleviation is uneven.Poverty alleviation faces potential challenges.Counties with better endowments should accelerate the transition from poverty alleviation speed to poverty alleviation quality,and introduce risk identification and prevention mechanisms,while paying special attention to"temporary poverty alleviation"trap,as well as putting emphasis on stabilizing poverty alleviation,consolidating poverty alleviation outcomes and poverty alleviation quality.The Liangshan Yi Minority Area with weak endowments still needs to focus on poverty alleviation speed at this stage,relying on the pro-poor effect of economic development to break the deep-level poverty trap.While focusing on supporting counties at deep poverty levels,it is also necessary to subdivide the internal differences in this area,avoiding the"averageism"tendency and action convergence,and improving policy targeting.