城镇化与能源消费的耦合发展研究

Coupling development of urbanization and energy consumption

城镇化与能源消费之间相互作用、彼此影响,存在复杂、紧密的耦合关系.在分析城镇化与能源消费耦合关系的基础上,推导了二者耦合发展的模型和规律,选取中国1990-2016年间的数据对期间城镇化与能源消费的耦合发展状态进行了实证分析.发现在此阶段,中国现有的城镇化水平(57.35%)小于转折点城镇化水平(59.46%),城镇化与能源消费处于拮抗阶段,城镇化发展对能源消费造成了较大压力;城镇化水平已经逼近耦合发展的转折点,能源消费压力即将达到峰值469068万t标准煤.城镇化与能源消费之间的拮抗发展已经严重阻碍城镇化的进一步推进.针对目前发展模式下城镇化与能源消费发展拮抗、相互掣肘问题,建议从城镇节能减排、增长方式改变、空间布局、产业结构等方面促进新型城镇化与能源消费,实现高水平耦合发展.

Interacting and affecting each other, the urbanization and energy consumption have a complex and inherent coupling relation. Basing on analysis of the coupling relation between the urbanization and energy consumption, the model and pattern of coupling development are deducted. An empirical study is carried out accordingly adopting the data of China from 1990 to 2016. It is found that the current urbanization rate is 57.35%, lower than the urbanization rate 59.46% of the turning point. An antagonize status was found in urbanization and energy consumption in China, indicating a great pressure of urbanization on energy consumption. The urbanization level is closing to the turning point of coupling development, and the energy consumption is reaching its peak value of 4 690.68 million tons of standard coal equivalent. The antagonizing of urbanization and energy consumption has been a severe hinder of urban development. To ease the antagonism and impediment of urbanization and energy consumption, the energy-saving and emission-reduction, urban grouth mode, spatial layout and industrial structure are suggested to actualize a high-level coupling development of new urbanization and energy consumption.