房价与中老年人居住安排——基于CHARLS两期面板数据的实证分析

Housing Price and Living Arrangement of Middle-Aged and Elderly People:The Positive Analysis Based on the Two-period Panel Data of CHARLS

本文应用CHARLS两期面板数据,构建相关计量模型进行分析,发现房价确实对中老年人居住安排产生了影响。随机效应模型估计结果表明:房价每上升1000元/平方米,子女与中老年父母分开居住于同一个社区另一个家庭的概率下降13.3%,中老年父母与子女合住的可能性增加。房价这一变动对城市居民影响效应更为显著和稳健,会使子女与中老年父母分开居住于同一社区另一个家庭的可能性下降36%,父母与子女合住的概率增加。房价影响中老年人居住安排的可能机制在于:房价影响了中老年人及已婚子女形成新家庭的最优居住安排,即既住的不太远从而方便代际转移又可照顾代际隐私和自治的"一碗汤的距离",而高房价使已婚子女与中老年人合住。研究的政策启示在于,合理调控房地产市场,抑制房价过快上涨,促进其健康发展,这对于中老年人居住安排优化,提升中老年人及已婚子女福利均有积极意义。

Living Arrangement of middle-aged and elderly people might affect both their own and their offspring’s welfare,so study on the impacting factors of living arrangement is of great significance.Applying the two-period panel data of CHARLS and constructing econometric models,this paper estimates the impact of housing price on the living arrangement of middle-aged and elderly People.The results of random effects indicate that the probability of children’s separate living in another household in the same community with parents will decrease by 13.3%with 1000 yuan housing price rise per square meter while co-residence odds will become larger,holding other things equal.Especially for middle-aged and elderly city dwellers,the effect of housing price on their living arrangement is more significant and robust than their rural counterparts,which the probability of children’s separate living in another household in the same community with parents will decrease by 36%while co-residence odds will increase.The mechanism behind might be housing price affects the optimal living arrangement of parents and their married children that both sides would like to live independently but not to live far away in order to facilitate intergenerational transfers among them,but high housing price impels co-residence of parents and their married children.The policy implication of our study lies in restraining soaring house price to curb the bubble so that married children can afford to buy their own houses,which will assist the optimization of living arrangement of parents and their children and enhance their respective well-being.