多主体嵌入全球生产网络的演化仿真研究——以澜湄五国的劳动密集型制造业为例

Study on the Evolution of Muti-agent Embedded Global Production Network——Analysis of the Labor-intensive Manufacturing in the Countries of Lancang-Mekong

首次尝试构建一个具有嵌套性、循环性及连续性的多主体嵌入全球生产网络演化分析框架,设计出从国家层级刻画网络初始形态、行业层级识别网络变化规则及企业层级模拟网络演化路径的仿真流程,并将其运用于分析澜湄五国劳动密集型制造业的嵌入过程。结果发现,当前澜湄五国劳动密集型制造业嵌入全球生产网络的初始形态呈现显著的等级性,生产关联变动呈现物流、人流、技术流、资金流等差异,演化进程中网络呈现层次模块属性。结合仿真结果,提出提升澜湄五国劳动密集型制造业嵌入程度的对策建议。

This paper attempts to build an evolutionary analysis framework for multi-agent embedded global production network with the characteristics of nesting, circulation and continuity. Furthermore, an emulation process is designed to describe the initial network form at the national level, identify the network change rules at the industry level and simulate the network evolution path at the enterprise level. Then, this method is used to analyze the embedding process of labor-intensive manufacturing in Lancang-Mekong countries. The conclusions can be summarized as follows. Firstly, the initial network of labor-intensive manufacturing in Lancang-Mekong countries embedded in the global production network shows a significant hierarchy. Secondly, the change of production relation in network shows the different flows of products, people, technology and capital. Thirdly, the network presents the hierarchical module attribute in the evolution process. Based on the conclusions above, countermeasures are proposed to enhance the network’s degree of labor-intensive manufacturing in Lancang-Mekong countries.