农业供给侧结构性改革有利于包容性增长吗?

Is Supply-side Structural Reform in Agriculture Conducive to Inclusive Growth?

在当前世界经济合作与交流的发展浪潮中,包容普惠的新发展方式已经成为共识。理论上说,农业供给侧结构性改革作为农业现代化的主线,将通过发挥其增收效应和分配效应促进经济的包容性增长。利用2001-2017年中国省际面板数据,构建农产品市场一体化空间权重矩阵下的空间杜宾模型,对农业供给侧结构性改革与包容性增长之间的关系进行实证分析的结果则表明:农业供给侧结构性改革有利于包容性增长,且农业供给侧结构性改革具有显著的负向空间溢出效应。从时空差异上看,农业供给侧结构性改革对包容性增长的影响具有明显的时间和空间异质性;从传导途径来看,农业供给侧结构性改革对包容性增长的作用方式呈现出阶段性特征,在区域间表现较为一致。上述结论可以为明确我国农业发展方向和包容性增长的实现路径提供指引,从而实现经济的持续健康发展。

In today’s wave of worldwide economic cooperation and exchange,the new development model of inclusiveness and universal benefit has become a consensus. In theory,as the main line of agricultural modernization,supply-side structural reform in agriculture will exert its income-increasing effect and distribution effect to promote economic inclusive growth. This paper uses Chinese provincial panel data from 2001 to 2017 to study the relationship between supply-side structural reform in agriculture and inclusive growth by constructing a Spatial Durbin Model,which is built under a spatial weight matrix of agricultural product market integration. The results show that supply-side structural reform in agriculture can promote inclusive growth, and has a significant negative spatial spillover effect. From the perspective of spatiotemporal difference, the effect of supply-side structural reform on inclusive growth has obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity. From the perspective of conduction pathway,the mode of supply-side structural reform’s effect on inclusive growth has a periodical characteristic,and it is relatively consistent across regions. These findings may provide guidance for China’s agricultural development direction and the path of inclusive growth in order to achieve sustainable and healthy economic development.