周期交错、政策不确定和企业R&D投资——基于官员任期和五年计划的证据

Political Periodic Interleaving,Policy Uncertainty and Enterprises’ R&D Investment——An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Officials and Five-year Plan

本文检验了官员任期及产业政策周期交错导致的政策不确定对企业R&D投资的影响。以2006-2014年A股上市公司为研究样本,结果表明,官员任期与五年计划周期交错程度与企业R&D投资增长率显著负相关。周期交错对国有企业、非高新技术企业和产权制度较差地区企业的R&D投资的抑制效应更明显。进一步检验发现,周期交错抑制企业R&D投资的潜在途径是降低财政补贴和企业风险承担。以上结果为制定基于创新驱动的官员激励政策和产业政策提供新思路。

This paper examines the impact of periodic interleaving between official tenure and industry policies on firm’s R&D investment. Using the sample of listed companies from 2006 to 2014,this paper finds that the growth rate of enterprises’ R&D investment has a significant negative relationship with periodic interleaving between official tenure and Five Year Plan,and that the crowding-out effect of periodic interleaving on innovation investment of state-owned enterprises,non-high-tech enterprises and enterprises in the area of low degree of property right is more obvious. And further tests show that the potential approach of the crowding-out effect is to reduce enterprises’ financial subsidies and risk taking. These results provide a new way for the development of incentive mechanism based on innovation driving.